| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Boise State | 34-7 | 1600.1 | +125.3 | 1725.4 | 29.8% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Florida | 18-16 | 1725.4 | +62.4 | 1787.8 | 23.7% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Miami | 12-49 | 1787.8 | -105.2 | 1682.6 | 44.2% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | South Carolina State | 63-14 | 1682.6 | +41.1 | 1723.7 | 97.8% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | W | Charlotte | 54-26 | 1729.7 | +4.4 | 1734.1 | 94.2% |
| 8 | Oct 10 2025 | W | North Texas | 63-36 | 1734.1 | +65.5 | 1799.6 | 51.3% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 48-13 | 1799.6 | +19.5 | 1819.1 | 91.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Memphis | 31-34 | 1819.1 | -7.9 | 1811.2 | 61.7% |
| 12 | Nov 6 2025 | W | UTSA | 55-23 | 1801.1 | +31.7 | 1832.8 | 72.7% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Navy | 38-41 | 1832.8 | -20.1 | 1812.7 | 79.2% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | UAB | 48-18 | 1812.7 | +21.2 | 1833.9 | 93.6% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Rice | 52-3 | 1833.9 | +29.6 | 1863.5 | 93.9% |
| 18 | Dec 17 2025 | L | Old Dominion | 10-24 | 1855.0 | -42.7 | 1812.3 | 70.8% |