| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Florida International | 19-9 | 1582.2 | -10.0 | 1572.2 | 74.5% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Army | 28-24 | 1572.2 | +52.1 | 1624.3 | 41.2% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Delaware State | 59-17 | 1624.3 | +1.3 | 1625.6 | 98.5% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Bowling Green | 14-6 | 1625.6 | -47.5 | 1578.1 | 95.7% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Temple | 13-17 | 1578.1 | -14.7 | 1563.4 | 66.8% |
| 6 | Oct 8 2026 | L | UTSA | 24-31 | 1563.4 | +2.9 | 1566.3 | 45.2% |